Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
37
Model margin
-0.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.092
- 44.0%Success rate38.4%
- +0.097EPA / dropback-0.052
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.160
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- 43.0%Third-down rate43.6%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.60Points / drive1.06
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.049EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:55 | 4 | 49 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 6:04 | 7 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| ARI | Q1 3:16 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 10–3 |
| SEA | Q2 14:46 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| ARI | Q2 10:47 | 3 | 10 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| SEA | Q2 9:58 | 3 | 46 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| ARI | Q2 8:38 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| SEA | Q2 3:50 | 8 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–6 |
| ARI | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 54 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| SEA | Q3 8:03 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 27–6 |
| ARI | Q3 6:31 | 11 | 55 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| SEA | Q3 1:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–6 |
| ARI | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 27–6 |
| SEA | Q4 14:30 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 27–6 |
| ARI | Q4 9:51 | 8 | 58 | Turnover | 27–6 |
| SEA | Q4 7:30 | 15 | 71 | End of half | 27–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 23/31 | 260 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 72 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Koren Robinson | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koren Robinson | 7 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 5 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Ryan Hannam | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| James Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/29 | 226 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 16 | 85 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason McAddley | 5 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 5 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jake Soliday | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13