Closing spread
PHI -12
Total
37.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.004
- 38.4%Success rate43.3%
- -0.052EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- 43.6%Third-down rate39.3%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate53.1%
- 1.06Points / drive1.81
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.2%
- +0.083EPA / play allowed-0.178
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:33 | 8 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:18 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:25 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 2:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 1:07 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q2 14:46 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 9:56 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| PHI | Q2 8:01 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| ARI | Q2 7:47 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| PHI | Q2 7:43 | 9 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q2 3:11 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–21 |
| PHI | Q2 2:16 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| ARI | Q2 1:02 | 8 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 14–28 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 14–28 |
| PHI | Q3 12:27 | 10 | 81 | Field goal | 14–31 |
| ARI | Q3 5:55 | 5 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 14–31 |
| PHI | Q3 3:16 | 17 | 110 | Touchdown | 14–38 |
| ARI | Q4 8:21 | 10 | 40 | Turnover | 14–38 |
| PHI | Q4 4:49 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 14–38 |
| ARI | Q4 1:23 | 7 | 39 | End of half | 14–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 20/35 | 163 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 5 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jake Soliday | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Arnold Jackson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Frank Sanders | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/25 | 255 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 31 | 135 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 3 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 7 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Freddie Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Brian Westbrook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.10