2002 · Week 11

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

7·26

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ray Lucas

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapDolphins
  • -0.058EPA / play+0.017
  • 41.6%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.044EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.028
  • 8.3%Explosive rate11.0%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive1.85
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 12–7 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9BAL @ MIA28–6BAL
2023 · W17MIA @ BAL19–56BAL
2022 · W2MIA @ BAL42–38MIA
2021 · W10BAL @ MIA10–22MIA
2019 · W1BAL @ MIA59–10BAL
2017 · W8MIA @ BAL0–40BAL
2016 · W13MIA @ BAL6–38BAL
2015 · W13BAL @ MIA13–15MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:2337Punt0–0
MIAQ1 11:5443Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:175-14Punt0–0
MIAQ1 8:08888Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 3:43518Punt0–7
MIAQ1 0:4837Punt0–7
BALQ2 14:04310Punt0–7
MIAQ2 12:2639Punt0–7
BALQ2 10:48437Touchdown7–7
MIAQ2 9:08756Touchdown7–14
BALQ2 6:19510Punt7–14
MIAQ2 3:201043Field goal7–17
BALQ2 0:0800End of half7–17
BALQ3 15:00630Punt7–17
MIAQ3 12:12623Punt7–17
BALQ3 8:38428Turnover7–17
MIAQ3 6:5739Field goal7–20
BALQ3 5:07623Punt7–20
MIAQ3 2:4636Punt7–20
BALQ3 1:133-6Punt7–20
MIAQ4 14:13967Touchdown7–26
BALQ4 9:023-3Punt7–26
MIAQ4 6:30522Punt7–26
BALQ4 3:10918Turnover on downs7–26
MIAQ4 1:3700End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake14/2812711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17472.80
Jeff Blake284.00
Alan Ricard284.00
Chester Taylor133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor410481
Jamal Lewis11260
Terry Jones23220
Javin Hunter22150
Todd Heap1360
Ron Johnson1450
Chester Taylor3450

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ray Lucas18/2622100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams261023.92
Ray Lucas11121.11
James McKnight122.00
Chris Chambers100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight46590
Chris Chambers45500
Randy McMichael23500
Ricky Williams56280
Jed Weaver11250
Robert Edwards0100
Dedric Ward0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.3%2.8%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.81