Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play+0.017
- 41.6%Success rate45.0%
- -0.044EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.028
- 8.3%Explosive rate11.0%
- 38.2%Third-down rate37.0%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.09Points / drive1.85
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–7 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.6 points. MIA are 6-13 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 14/28 | 127 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 47 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 4 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 18/26 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Ray Lucas | 11 | 12 | 1.1 | 1 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 4 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.51
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.81