Closing spread
STL -10.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40 points. STL are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 20/33 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| John Davis | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Dez White | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.