2002 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

27·20

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CLE -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.063
  • 42.2%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.085
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.027
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.3%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.04
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed+0.080

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:00376Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 14:13966Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 9:5033Punt7–7
CLEQ1 8:451380Touchdown14–7
CINQ1 2:01968Touchdown14–14
CLEQ2 13:441062Missed field goal14–14
CINQ2 8:0433Punt14–14
CLEQ2 7:0029Turnover14–14
CINQ2 6:22522Punt14–14
CLEQ2 3:261153Field goal17–14
CINQ2 0:351-10End of half17–14
CLEQ3 15:0030Punt17–14
CINQ3 13:22848Field goal17–17
CLEQ3 8:531075Touchdown24–17
CINQ3 2:25755Field goal24–20
CLEQ4 14:3735Punt24–20
CINQ4 12:58414Punt24–20
CLEQ4 10:2537Field goal27–20
CINQ4 8:1446Turnover on downs27–20
CLEQ4 5:5136Punt27–20
CLEQ4 3:53619Punt27–20
CINQ4 1:41765End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch22/3524231
Frisman Jackson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green25963.80
James Jackson7273.90
Quincy Morgan11111.00
Tim Couch155.00
Andre Davis111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan59810
Dennis Northcutt67711
Kevin Johnson38320
Steve Heiden22150
Andre Davis12151
Darnell Sanders11141
Frisman Jackson1160
Mark Campbell1140
William Green2240
James Jackson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna17/3025810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon19924.80
Peter Warrick144.00
Brandon Bennett133.00
Jon Kitna133.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Johnson481031
T.J. Houshmandzadeh34590
Peter Warrick13260
Corey Dillon22180
Matt Schobel23170
Brandon Bennett2290
Michael Westbrook1390
Ron Dugans0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.33