Closing spread
CLE -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.063
- 42.2%Success rate43.4%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.027
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.3%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.04
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 22/35 | 242 | 3 | 1 |
| Frisman Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 7 | 27 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 5 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 6 | 7 | 71 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Darnell Sanders | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Frisman Jackson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| William Green | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 17/30 | 258 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 92 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.33