Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.060
- 43.5%Success rate45.1%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- 38.0%Third-down rate43.6%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate58.3%
- 1.67Points / drive1.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/43 | 296 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 4 | 8 | 121 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 8 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 13/26 | 217 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 20 | 130 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 6 | 10 | 115 | 1 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 2 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20