Closing spread
JAX -6.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play-0.226
- 40.3%Success rate33.0%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.307
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.8%
- 33.9%Third-down rate25.7%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 0.22Points / drive0.66
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:07 | 8 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 7:03 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 3:32 | 4 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 1:19 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:34 | 6 | 96 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 10:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–0 |
| JAX | Q2 8:21 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–0 |
| HOU | Q2 7:22 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q2 3:56 | 5 | 32 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| HOU | Q2 1:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–7 |
| JAX | Q2 1:21 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| HOU | Q2 0:02 | 1 | -16 | End of half | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–7 |
| JAX | Q3 13:30 | 2 | 27 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| HOU | Q3 12:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–7 |
| JAX | Q3 10:44 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 24–7 |
| HOU | Q3 6:27 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q3 1:25 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 24–14 |
| HOU | Q4 14:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–14 |
| JAX | Q4 13:19 | 9 | 58 | Missed field goal | 24–14 |
| HOU | Q4 7:26 | 15 | 76 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| JAX | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–21 |
| HOU | Q4 1:32 | 4 | -15 | Turnover on downs | 24–21 |
| JAX | Q4 0:21 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 15/25 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 |
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 22/30 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 2 |
| James Allen | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 9 | 15 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 5 | 7 | 73 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| James Allen | 7 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.75
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.31