Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 7–4 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. OAK are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/30 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.