Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.7 points. OAK are 5-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:09 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 6:58 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:04 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:51 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 9:58 | 12 | 49 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 4:16 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 6–10 |
| NE | Q2 1:46 | 1 | -4 | Turnover | 6–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:36 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:52 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 83 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| NE | Q3 5:18 | 7 | 36 | Missed field goal | 6–24 |
| LV | Q3 2:18 | 2 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| NE | Q3 1:27 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| LV | Q3 1:27 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 13–24 |
| NE | Q4 13:20 | 10 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 26 | Missed field goal | 13–24 |
| NE | Q4 4:39 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 3:41 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 19–27 |
| NE | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 20–27 |
| LV | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 18/30 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| David Patten | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.