2002 · Week 11

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

23·31

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

The Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

44

Model margin

+3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.043
  • 43.3%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.095
  • 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
  • 42.2%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.58
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
PITQ1 15:00172Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 14:4536Punt7–0
PITQ1 13:0831Turnover7–6
TENQ1 12:1611Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 12:121137Missed field goal7–7
TENQ1 6:50624Turnover7–7
PITQ1 4:1122Turnover7–7
TENQ1 3:261249Punt7–7
PITQ2 12:44945Punt7–7
TENQ2 8:121392Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 2:5530Punt7–14
TENQ2 1:54413Turnover on downs7–14
PITQ2 1:05444Missed field goal7–14
TENQ2 0:0500End of half7–14
TENQ3 15:001045Missed field goal7–14
PITQ3 9:0738Turnover7–14
TENQ3 7:54753Touchdown7–21
PITQ3 3:483-2Punt7–21
TENQ3 2:12461Touchdown7–28
PITQ3 0:2832Punt7–28
TENQ4 14:47934Field goal7–31
PITQ4 8:061272Touchdown15–31
TENQ4 3:2533Punt15–31
PITQ4 2:57876Touchdown23–31
TENQ4 1:2800End of half23–31

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox14/2819413
Kordell Stewart13/1712420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue9161.80
Tommy Maddox11212.00
Kordell Stewart11111.00
Jerome Bettis461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward10141682
Plaxico Burress411410
Terance Mathis34381
Amos Zereoue45370
Antwaan Randle El57260
Mark Bruener1280

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair18/3325720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George28792.82
Steve McNair9242.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Dyson813872
Derrick Mason610850
Justin McCareins12550
Eddie George12140
Drew Bennett11110
Erron Kinney1250
Shad Meier0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

6.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.39