Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.043
- 43.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.095
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.9%
- 42.2%Third-down rate43.7%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.71Points / drive1.58
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 14/28 | 194 | 1 | 3 |
| Kordell Stewart | 13/17 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 10 | 14 | 168 | 2 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 11 | 41 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 18/33 | 257 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 28 | 79 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 8 | 13 | 87 | 2 |
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Shad Meier | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
6.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39