2002 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Shane Matthews

17·19

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.056EPA / play+0.008
  • 41.7%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.177
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.6%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.46
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.060

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
WASQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:561664Field goal0–3
WASQ1 6:3937Punt0–3
NYGQ1 5:00311Punt0–3
WASQ1 3:241143Touchdown7–3
NYGQ2 14:101122Punt7–3
WASQ2 9:55513Punt7–3
NYGQ2 7:0746Turnover7–3
WASQ2 5:513-1Field goal10–3
NYGQ2 5:01972Touchdown10–10
WASQ2 1:47531Punt10–10
NYGQ2 0:351-1End of half10–10
NYGQ3 15:00210Turnover10–10
WASQ3 14:1435Punt10–10
NYGQ3 12:4921Turnover16–10
WASQ3 12:01111Touchdown17–10
NYGQ3 11:531027Punt17–10
WASQ3 6:5736Punt17–10
NYGQ3 5:12715Field goal17–13
WASQ3 2:5600Field goal17–13
NYGQ3 2:49422Field goal17–16
WASQ3 1:3230Turnover17–16
NYGQ3 1:07930Field goal17–19
WASQ4 11:56418Punt17–19
NYGQ4 10:18524Punt17–19
WASQ4 7:381232Missed field goal17–19
NYGQ4 3:1130Punt17–19
WASQ4 2:294-7Turnover on downs17–19
NYGQ4 1:533-4End of half17–19

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews15/3511321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis19593.10
Shane Matthews122.00
Kenny Watson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Gardner510471
Willie Jackson58361
Kenny Watson23170
Derrius Thompson1780
Walter Rasby1250
Stephen Davis0100
Chris Doering1100
Leonard Stephens0100
Zeron Flemister0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins22/4621112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber24642.70
Ron Dayne10292.90
Kerry Collins4-5-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Shockey11181110
Amani Toomer815951
Dan Campbell1570
Daryl Jones0400
Tiki Barber24-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.66