Closing spread
PIT -10.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.008
- 43.4%Success rate43.3%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.073
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.7%
- 39.3%Third-down rate42.2%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.04Points / drive1.71
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.080EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 41–16 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 9:34 | 9 | 43 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 5:01 | 3 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| CIN | Q1 3:22 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q1 1:28 | 11 | 62 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| CIN | Q2 10:40 | 7 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| PIT | Q2 7:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–17 |
| CIN | Q2 5:23 | 11 | 108 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 33 | Missed field goal | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 12:35 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 14–17 |
| CIN | Q3 8:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–17 |
| PIT | Q3 7:23 | 4 | 1 | Field goal | 14–20 |
| CIN | Q3 6:02 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–20 |
| PIT | Q3 4:21 | 12 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 14–20 |
| CIN | Q4 12:29 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| PIT | Q4 8:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–20 |
| PIT | Q4 6:20 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 21–23 |
| CIN | Q4 4:44 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–23 |
| PIT | Q4 3:39 | 2 | 61 | Touchdown | 21–29 |
| CIN | Q4 2:45 | 10 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 21–29 |
| PIT | Q4 0:42 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/39 | 298 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 19 | 60 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 7 | 14 | 152 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 6 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 3 | 4 | 37 | 1 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Westbrook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 22/26 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 22 | 79 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Kordell Stewart | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 5 | 6 | 125 | 1 |
| Plaxico Burress | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.37