Closing spread
CHI -5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.129
- 34.3%Success rate40.0%
- -0.156EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.197
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- 29.8%Third-down rate33.7%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 0.96Points / drive1.35
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.001
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 28–26 since 1999
DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 21/40 | 213 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Joey Harrington | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotty Anderson | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 4 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| James Stewart | 6 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| John Owens | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 21/35 | 250 | 1 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 10/16 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marty Booker | 10 | 19 | 157 | 0 |
| Dez White | 8 | 12 | 106 | 1 |
| Leon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Dustin Lyman | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| John Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.64
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.61