2002 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

17·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Chris Chandler

Memorial Stadium (Champaign) · outdoors · astroplay · 45°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CHI -5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBears
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.129
  • 34.3%Success rate40.0%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.197
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate33.7%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.35
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.2%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed-0.001

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 28–26 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. CHI are 24-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18DET @ CHI19–16DET
2025 · W2CHI @ DET21–52DET
2024 · W16DET @ CHI34–17DET
2024 · W13CHI @ DET20–23DET
2023 · W14DET @ CHI13–28CHI
2023 · W11CHI @ DET26–31DET
2022 · W17CHI @ DET10–41DET
2022 · W10DET @ CHI31–30DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–CHI
DETQ1 15:001242Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:14887Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 5:05412Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 3:5944Turnover on downs0–0
DETQ1 1:583-2Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 1:00514Touchdown0–7
DETQ2 13:4230Punt0–7
CHIQ2 13:1037Punt0–7
DETQ2 11:281351Field goal3–7
CHIQ2 5:46827Punt3–7
DETQ2 1:42431End of half3–7
CHIQ3 15:0037Punt3–7
DETQ3 13:141589Touchdown10–7
CHIQ3 5:0930Punt10–7
DETQ3 4:13435Touchdown17–7
CHIQ3 2:38516Punt17–7
DETQ3 0:2039Punt17–7
CHIQ4 14:05235Turnover17–7
DETQ4 13:15518Punt17–7
CHIQ4 10:32618Turnover on downs17–7
DETQ4 7:4936Punt17–7
CHIQ4 6:1913101Touchdown17–14
DETQ4 2:33410Punt17–14
CHIQ4 1:56953Field goal17–17
CHIOT1353Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington21/4021311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart22853.91
Joey Harrington100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Scotty Anderson57700
Germane Crowell48381
James Stewart68380
Bill Schroeder35310
Larry Foster11130
Mikhael Ricks15110
John Owens0200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller21/3525010
Chris Chandler10/1611110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas14402.90
Leon Johnson9343.80
Chris Chandler111.00
Jim Miller100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marty Booker10191570
Dez White8121061
Leon Johnson34270
Dustin Lyman35250
Ahmad Merritt33240
Anthony Thomas11110
Stanley Pritchett1250
Marcus Robinson1331
John Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.64
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.61