Closing spread
DEN -6
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.065
- 44.3%Success rate49.4%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.138EPA / rush+0.062
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- 44.5%Third-down rate37.9%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.70Points / drive1.76
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 7:29 | 9 | 38 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 2:39 | 13 | 46 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 11:36 | 7 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–6 |
| IND | Q2 8:27 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q2 4:19 | 10 | 35 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q2 0:34 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| IND | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| IND | Q3 11:53 | 16 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| DEN | Q3 2:49 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| IND | Q3 2:23 | 4 | 16 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q3 1:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–13 |
| IND | Q4 14:52 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DEN | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| IND | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 29 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| DEN | Q4 4:56 | 10 | 47 | Punt | 17–20 |
| IND | Q4 1:40 | 10 | 39 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| DEN | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–20 |
| IND | OT | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/44 | 229 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 84 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 11 | 16 | 107 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 6 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 15/24 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 6 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58