Closing spread
SF -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.098
- 43.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
- 39.3%Third-down rate52.5%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.81Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 9–7 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koy Detmer | 18/26 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 3/3 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Koy Detmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 6 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Antonio Freeman | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 29/51 | 284 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 7/12 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 13 | 19 | 166 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 8 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 5 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| James Jordan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.80
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.16