2002 · Week 12

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Koy Detmer

38·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

37.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

4.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge map49ers
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.098
  • 43.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.043EPA / rush+0.004
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate52.5%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed+0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 9–7 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. SF are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSF @ PHI23–19SF
2023 · W13SF @ PHI42–19SF
2022 · playoffsSF @ PHI7–31PHI
2021 · W2SF @ PHI17–11SF
2020 · W4PHI @ SF25–20PHI
2017 · W8SF @ PHI10–33PHI
2014 · W4PHI @ SF21–26SF
2011 · W4SF @ PHI24–23SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SF
SFQ1 15:00731Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:453-4Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:5133Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:14740Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 5:5439Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:241290Touchdown7–0
SFQ2 13:45622Opp touchdown14–0
PHIQ2 10:1900Opp touchdown14–0
SFQ2 10:19855Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 6:1631Punt14–7
SFQ2 5:13416Punt14–7
PHIQ2 3:42874Touchdown21–7
SFQ2 0:55623End of half21–7
PHIQ3 15:00418Punt21–7
SFQ3 12:35854Field goal21–10
PHIQ3 9:04764Touchdown28–10
SFQ3 5:3933Punt28–10
PHIQ3 4:30635Touchdown35–10
SFQ3 2:41548Touchdown35–17
PHIQ3 1:0138Field goal38–17
SFQ4 14:371246Turnover on downs38–17
PHIQ4 10:58518Punt38–17
SFQ4 7:27723Turnover on downs38–17
PHIQ4 5:2232Punt38–17
SFQ4 4:511576Turnover on downs38–17
PHIQ4 0:5000End of half38–17

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Koy Detmer18/2622720
A.J. Feeley3/31710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley16553.40
James Thrash5295.80
Dorsey Levens4153.80
Brian Westbrook3103.30
Koy Detmer111.01
A.J. Feeley2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston69941
James Thrash23450
Chad Lewis57411
Antonio Freeman46261
Jeff Thomason11240
Duce Staley22120
Dorsey Levens1120

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia29/5128420
Tim Rattay7/125300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst10656.50
Paul Smith22914.50
Jeff Garcia3134.30
Kevan Barlow3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens13191662
Tai Streets812650
Garrison Hearst46310
J.J. Stokes510280
Paul Smith23120
Cedrick Wilson1290
Justin Swift1280
Kevan Barlow1130
James Jordan0100
Eric Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.80
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.16