Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 14:07 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:06 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q1 4:27 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q1 1:43 | 7 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 14:09 | 16 | 78 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q2 6:45 | 7 | 49 | Missed field goal | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q2 2:58 | 12 | 43 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 47 | Missed field goal | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q3 9:40 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 3–20 |
| MIA | Q3 6:23 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–20 |
| MIA | Q3 4:18 | 4 | 28 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| LAC | Q3 2:14 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–27 |
| MIA | Q3 0:54 | 5 | 83 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| LAC | Q4 13:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–30 |
| MIA | Q4 9:37 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 3–30 |
| LAC | Q4 5:03 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–30 |
| MIA | Q4 3:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–30 |
| LAC | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 3–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 14/23 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 143 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 3 | 4 | 111 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Robert Baker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.