Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
36.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. MIA are 12-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Lucas | 14/23 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 29 | 143 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Travis Minor | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 3 | 4 | 111 | 1 |
| Chris Chambers | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Robert Baker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Robert Edwards | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Randy McMichael | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.