2002 · Week 12
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Wuerffel | 16/23 | 235 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 31 | 88 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 4 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 2 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.