2002 · Week 12

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

12·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

Ravens Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.058
  • 44.9%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.044
  • -0.095EPA / rush-0.078
  • 6.9%Explosive rate8.3%
  • 43.7%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.09
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.021

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:0036Opp touchdown0–7
BALQ1 13:5900Opp touchdown0–7
TENQ1 13:59857Turnover0–7
BALQ1 9:0850Punt0–7
TENQ1 6:5010Turnover0–7
BALQ1 6:4558Field goal0–10
TENQ1 4:3937Punt0–10
BALQ1 3:03615Punt0–10
TENQ1 0:0000Field goal0–10
TENQ2 15:001371Field goal3–10
BALQ2 7:45519Punt3–10
TENQ2 5:20540Punt3–10
BALQ2 3:23839Punt3–10
TENQ2 1:04661Field goal6–10
BALQ2 0:0400End of half6–10
BALQ3 15:003-4Punt6–10
TENQ3 13:40825Turnover6–10
BALQ3 10:1949Turnover6–10
TENQ3 8:5042Punt6–10
BALQ3 7:4538Punt6–10
TENQ3 6:1434Turnover6–10
BALQ3 5:23626Field goal6–13
TENQ3 2:25922Field goal9–13
BALQ4 13:06659Turnover9–13
TENQ4 10:141083Field goal12–13
BALQ4 4:33423Punt12–13
TENQ4 2:44724Turnover on downs12–13
BALQ4 1:3700End of half12–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair21/4328303
Frank Wycheck1/11300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George16613.80
Steve McNair4143.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Dyson46870
Derrick Mason410490
Drew Bennett36490
Frank Wycheck36380
Justin McCareins25330
Erron Kinney11150
Eddie George24110
Greg Comella1360

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake11/2410901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis17955.60
Chester Taylor4102.50
Travis Taylor166.00
Todd Heap122.00
Jeff Blake4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Heap46420
Chester Taylor22190
Alan Ricard12170
Ron Johnson16140
Jamal Lewis11130
Travis Taylor1620
Terry Jones1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.23