Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.058
- 44.9%Success rate41.6%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.044
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.078
- 6.9%Explosive rate8.3%
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.2%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.58Points / drive1.09
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 21/43 | 283 | 0 | 3 |
| Frank Wycheck | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 16 | 61 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 6 | 87 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 11/24 | 109 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Heap | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ron Johnson | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.23