Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.063
- 41.6%Success rate43.4%
- -0.044EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- 38.2%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.09Points / drive1.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 10/19 | 115 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 22 | 121 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 3 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| John Jones | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Terry Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Javin Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 30/46 | 308 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 70 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dugans | 7 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 6 | 78 | 1 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Matt Schobel | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 6 | 11 | 28 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82