Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.129EPA / play+0.010
- 40.0%Success rate43.5%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.197EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 33.7%Third-down rate38.0%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.35Points / drive1.67
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 25/36 | 191 | 1 | 1 |
| Henry Burris | 1/1 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Johnson | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Lyman | 7 | 9 | 58 | 2 |
| Marty Booker | 6 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| Marcus Robinson | 1 | 2 | 45 | 1 |
| Dez White | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Leon Johnson | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ahmad Merritt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 24/42 | 221 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 17 | 91 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ahman Green | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 5 | 13 | 65 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 6 | 7 | 34 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.88