2002 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

20·30

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -9.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.129EPA / play+0.010
  • 40.0%Success rate43.5%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.197EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 33.7%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 1.35Points / drive1.67
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:00537Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:183-4Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 10:30418Touchdown7–0
GBQ1 9:1638Punt7–0
CHIQ1 7:4631Punt7–0
GBQ1 5:46646Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 2:31523Punt7–3
GBQ1 0:261041Turnover on downs7–3
CHIQ2 11:241261Touchdown14–3
GBQ2 5:201052Field goal14–6
CHIQ2 1:03316Turnover14–6
GBQ2 0:21316Turnover14–6
GBQ3 15:00762Touchdown14–13
CHIQ3 11:43945Turnover14–13
GBQ3 7:261390Field goal14–16
CHIQ3 1:0520Turnover14–16
GBQ3 0:4736Punt14–16
CHIQ4 14:42515Turnover14–16
GBQ4 11:48735Touchdown14–23
CHIQ4 8:0932Punt14–23
GBQ4 6:2932Punt14–23
CHIQ4 4:47518Missed field goal14–23
GBQ4 3:21743Touchdown14–30
CHIQ4 1:10468Touchdown20–30
GBQ4 0:1000End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jim Miller25/3619111
Henry Burris1/14510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leon Johnson11464.20
Anthony Thomas4266.50
Jim Miller221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Lyman79582
Marty Booker69520
Marcus Robinson12451
Dez White58390
Leon Johnson34270
John Gilmore23160
Stanley Pritchett1160
Ahmad Merritt1150
Anthony Thomas1100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre24/4222121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Fisher17915.41
Ahman Green12786.50
Brett Favre294.50
Donald Driver133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver513650
Ahman Green57450
Terry Glenn24390
Bubba Franks67341
Tony Fisher22150
Javon Walker12120
Robert Ferguson1460
Tyrone Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.88