Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 22/39 | 288 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 159 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 10 | 126 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Herb Haygood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.