Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
40
Model margin
+3.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:15 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:03 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:44 | 11 | 51 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:30 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:20 | 2 | 79 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DEN | Q2 14:56 | 5 | -3 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 11:37 | 5 | 41 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q2 9:26 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| LAC | Q2 8:30 | 8 | 10 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DEN | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q2 3:08 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q2 0:07 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 17–24 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q3 9:39 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q3 5:52 | 5 | 41 | Punt | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q3 2:52 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| DEN | Q4 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 24–24 |
| LAC | Q4 14:54 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 24–27 |
| DEN | Q4 13:12 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| LAC | Q4 11:41 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 24–27 |
| DEN | Q4 9:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–27 |
| LAC | Q4 7:57 | 6 | 19 | Missed field goal | 24–27 |
| DEN | Q4 5:07 | 10 | 53 | Field goal | 27–27 |
| LAC | Q4 1:39 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 27–27 |
| DEN | Q4 1:04 | 3 | 8 | End of half | 27–27 |
| DEN | OT | 3 | -4 | Punt | 27–27 |
| LAC | OT | 4 | 40 | Missed field goal | 27–27 |
| DEN | OT | 7 | 39 | Missed field goal | 27–27 |
| LAC | OT | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 27–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Beuerlein | 22/39 | 288 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 159 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 7 | 10 | 126 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Herb Haygood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.