Closing spread
IND -11.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play+0.016
- 33.0%Success rate44.3%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.112
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.138
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- 25.7%Third-down rate44.5%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 0.66Points / drive1.70
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 33–15–1 since 1999
HOU have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.8 points. IND are 27-19-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 20/35 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 10 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 15/28 | 190 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 11 | 101 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.08