2002 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

3·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -11.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapColts
  • -0.226EPA / play+0.016
  • 33.0%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.112
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.138
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate44.5%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.70
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 34–15–1 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. IND are 28-19-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3HOU @ IND17–19IND
2025 · W18IND @ HOU30–38HOU
2025 · W13HOU @ IND20–16HOU
2024 · W8IND @ HOU20–23HOU
2024 · W1HOU @ IND29–27HOU
2023 · W18HOU @ IND23–19HOU
2023 · W2IND @ HOU31–20IND
2022 · W18HOU @ IND32–31HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–IND
HOUQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:13441Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:1613Turnover0–0
INDQ1 11:0733Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 9:0000Touchdown0–9
INDQ1 8:52116Touchdown0–10
HOUQ1 8:47615Punt0–10
INDQ1 4:53820Punt0–10
HOUQ1 0:0836Punt0–10
INDQ2 14:01434Field goal0–13
HOUQ2 11:47418Punt0–13
INDQ2 8:3439Punt0–13
HOUQ2 6:0052Punt0–13
INDQ2 3:3536Punt0–13
HOUQ2 1:57635Punt0–13
INDQ2 0:3000End of half0–13
INDQ3 15:0038Punt0–13
HOUQ3 13:17422Punt0–13
INDQ3 11:5130Punt0–13
HOUQ3 10:42623Punt0–13
INDQ3 7:16735Punt0–13
HOUQ3 3:5736Punt0–13
INDQ3 2:07631Punt0–13
HOUQ4 13:5932Punt0–13
INDQ4 12:291065Touchdown0–19
HOUQ4 8:11934Punt0–19
HOUQ4 4:3854Field goal3–19
INDQ4 3:4530Punt3–19
HOUQ4 3:134-2Turnover on downs3–19
INDQ4 2:01212End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr20/3513700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen16644.00
David Carr111.00
Jonathan Wells300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Allen1010490
Billy Miller47410
JaJuan Dawson24200
Jabar Gaffney25180
Jabari Holloway1270
Jarrod Baxter1120
Corey Bradford0600

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning15/2819010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James20653.30
James Mungro4133.31
Ricky Williams5122.40
Peyton Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison9111010
Reggie Wayne35430
Qadry Ismail16260
Marcus Pollard11161
Joe Dean Davenport1140
Edgerrin James0300
James Mungro0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

1.30%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.08