Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
44
Model margin
-2.1est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.269
- 43.3%Success rate40.3%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.424
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.2%Third-down rate33.9%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.71Points / drive0.22
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.086EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–9 since 1999
Meetings average 37.9 points. JAX are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 12:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 11:42 | 11 | 55 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:17 | 5 | 46 | Opp touchdown | 12–1 |
| PIT | Q1 2:28 | 9 | 71 | Touchdown | 19–1 |
| JAX | Q2 12:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 19–1 |
| PIT | Q2 10:50 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 19–1 |
| JAX | Q2 7:20 | 4 | 22 | Field goal | 19–4 |
| PIT | Q2 4:32 | 6 | 45 | Field goal | 22–4 |
| JAX | Q2 1:43 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 22–4 |
| PIT | Q2 0:30 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 22–4 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 22–4 |
| PIT | Q3 14:01 | 4 | 24 | Field goal | 25–4 |
| JAX | Q3 11:12 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 25–4 |
| PIT | Q3 7:59 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 25–4 |
| JAX | Q3 2:31 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 25–4 |
| PIT | Q3 1:07 | 8 | 42 | Field goal | 28–4 |
| JAX | Q4 11:37 | 6 | 60 | Opp touchdown | 34–5 |
| PIT | Q4 8:51 | 7 | 43 | Field goal | 37–5 |
| JAX | Q4 4:30 | 10 | 60 | Opp touchdown | 43–5 |
| PIT | Q4 1:16 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 43–5 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 16/26 | 202 | 0 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 12/23 | 146 | 2 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 12 | 84 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaxico Burress | 5 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 4 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 8 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 3 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.08