2002 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

24·31

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -8.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.035EPA / play+0.098
  • 44.0%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.097EPA / dropback+0.159
  • -0.070EPA / rush+0.004
  • 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 43.0%Third-down rate52.5%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.83
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.049EPA / play allowed+0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SEAQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:22832Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 9:54614Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:33531Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 5:041196Field goal3–0
SFQ2 14:131470Touchdown3–7
SEAQ2 5:45416Opp touchdown3–14
SFQ2 2:4800Opp touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 2:4836Punt3–14
SFQ2 2:09964Field goal3–17
SEAQ2 0:20322End of half3–17
SFQ3 15:00618Punt3–17
SEAQ3 11:5120Turnover3–17
SFQ3 11:3434Touchdown3–24
SEAQ3 10:12367Touchdown10–24
SFQ3 8:5233Punt10–24
SEAQ3 7:13770Turnover10–24
SFQ3 3:331179Touchdown10–31
SEAQ4 13:251261Turnover on downs10–31
SFQ4 8:4332Punt10–31
SEAQ4 7:4330Punt10–31
SFQ4 7:213-4Punt10–31
SEAQ4 5:22657Touchdown17–31
SFQ4 3:5032Punt17–31
SEAQ4 3:19980Touchdown24–31
SFQ4 1:5700Turnover24–31
SEAQ4 1:55314Turnover24–31
SFQ4 1:2300End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck30/5542732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander16744.60
Matt Hasselbeck284.00
Maurice Morris1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Jackson7161142
Koren Robinson411951
Shaun Alexander810770
Bobby Engram69720
Itula Mili34400
Jerramy Stevens22290
James Williams0300

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia16/2916402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst311244.03
Jeff Garcia5122.40
Terrell Owens144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tai Streets67660
Terrell Owens59450
Garrison Hearst25280
J.J. Stokes13200
Paul Smith1140
Eric Johnson0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.40