Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.098
- 44.0%Success rate45.2%
- +0.097EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.070EPA / rush+0.004
- 7.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 43.0%Third-down rate52.5%
- 47.4%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.60Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.049EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 30/55 | 427 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Jackson | 7 | 16 | 114 | 2 |
| Koren Robinson | 4 | 11 | 95 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 8 | 10 | 77 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| James Williams | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/29 | 164 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 31 | 124 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Streets | 6 | 7 | 66 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.40