Closing spread
STL -2
Total
38
Model margin
+5.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–4 since 1999
PHI have won 4 straight. Meetings average 48.1 points. PHI are 12-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 14/30 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.91
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.