Closing spread
STL -2
Total
38
Model margin
+5.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:16 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:34 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:13 | 1 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:58 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:44 | 9 | 48 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 2:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:58 | 3 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 0:09 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:09 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 13:18 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q2 7:27 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 4:59 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 3:39 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 3:33 | 6 | 57 | — | 0–10 |
| PHI | Q2 1:00 | 0 | 0 | — | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 1:00 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q2 0:20 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 38 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q3 13:17 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:06 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q3 10:05 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:49 | 12 | 26 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q4 14:49 | 7 | 64 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LA | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q4 8:31 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q4 8:05 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q4 5:27 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q4 3:37 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| PHI | Q4 2:27 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q4 0:19 | 3 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 14/30 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 3 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.91
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.32
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.