2002 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Danny Wuerffel

20·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 58°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

36.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapCowboys
  • -0.056EPA / play-0.190
  • 41.7%Success rate37.2%
  • -0.037EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.083EPA / rush-0.185
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 39.7%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.22Points / drive0.79
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. DAL are 32-23 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–DAL
DALQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:4639Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:09726Punt0–0
WASQ1 8:45539Turnover0–0
DALQ1 6:2039Punt0–0
WASQ1 4:0535Turnover0–0
DALQ1 2:4445Punt0–0
WASQ1 1:1336Missed field goal0–0
DALQ2 14:51434Touchdown0–7
WASQ2 13:24572Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 11:281073Field goal7–10
WASQ2 5:36854Touchdown14–10
DALQ2 1:5531Punt14–10
WASQ2 1:0929End of half14–10
WASQ3 15:00563Touchdown20–10
DALQ3 12:52816Punt20–10
WASQ3 9:403-2Opp touchdown20–17
DALQ3 8:5300Opp touchdown20–17
WASQ3 8:53615Punt20–17
DALQ3 6:04961Missed field goal20–17
WASQ3 1:3236Punt20–17
DALQ4 14:41412Punt20–17
WASQ4 12:4433Punt20–17
DALQ4 11:01354Touchdown20–24
WASQ4 10:053-2Punt20–24
DALQ4 7:50620Field goal20–27
WASQ4 4:23726Turnover on downs20–27
DALQ4 3:09426Punt20–27
WASQ4 0:44612Turnover20–27

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Danny Wuerffel21/3624333
Patrick Ramsey0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis20512.50
Danny Wuerffel4287.00
Kenny Watson144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson66941
Rod Gardner610761
Zeron Flemister11161
Chris Doering24150
Kenny Watson24140
Stephen Davis13110
Willie Jackson0200
Darnerien McCants0200

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson12/2514520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith231446.30
Michael Wiley23115.50
Troy Hambrick9232.60
Chad Hutchinson177.00
Joey Galloway166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway39541
Antonio Bryant24411
Darnay Scott11110
Tony McGee11100
Michael Wiley1180
Troy Hambrick2220
Ken-Yon Rambo0200
Emmitt Smith12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83