2002 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 58°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.190
- 41.7%Success rate37.2%
- -0.037EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 39.7%Third-down rate23.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.22Points / drive0.79
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. DAL are 31-23 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Wuerffel | 21/36 | 243 | 3 | 3 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 20 | 51 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 6 | 6 | 94 | 1 |
| Rod Gardner | 6 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| Chris Doering | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 12/25 | 145 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 23 | 144 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 9 | 54 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 2 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.83