Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play-0.269
- 42.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.050EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.424
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- 40.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 60.6%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.59Points / drive0.22
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.025EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 21/35 | 264 | 2 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 10/14 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 23 | 145 | 6.3 | 1 |
| William Green | 26 | 119 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 6 | 118 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| William Green | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.9%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.94