2002 · Week 14

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

21·20

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.007EPA / play-0.269
  • 42.2%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.050EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.424
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
  • 40.7%Third-down rate33.9%
  • 60.6%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive0.22
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.025EPA / play allowed+0.014

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 38.8 points. JAX are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CLE @ JAX10–34JAX
2024 · W2CLE @ JAX18–13CLE
2023 · W14JAX @ CLE27–31CLE
2020 · W12CLE @ JAX27–25CLE
2017 · W11JAX @ CLE19–7JAX
2014 · W7CLE @ JAX6–24JAX
2013 · W13JAX @ CLE32–28JAX
2011 · W11JAX @ CLE10–14CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–JAX
CLEQ1 15:00940Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 10:443-9Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:10613Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 6:14853Opp touchdown6–1
CLEQ1 1:293-2Punt6–1
JAXQ2 14:34717Punt6–1
CLEQ2 10:51934Punt6–1
JAXQ2 4:4030Punt6–1
CLEQ2 2:541049Missed field goal6–1
JAXQ2 0:292-3End of half6–1
JAXQ3 15:0034Punt6–1
CLEQ3 13:241096Touchdown13–1
JAXQ3 7:33567Opp touchdown19–2
CLEQ3 5:28374Touchdown26–2
JAXQ3 3:5238Punt26–2
CLEQ3 1:57926Punt26–2
JAXQ4 12:2933Punt26–2
CLEQ4 10:51414Punt26–2
JAXQ4 9:42417Punt26–2
CLEQ4 7:25514Punt26–2
JAXQ4 5:13543Field goal26–5
CLEQ4 2:3256Turnover26–5
JAXQ4 1:25411Field goal26–8
CLEQ4 0:50353Touchdown33–8

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch21/3526422
Mark Brunell10/147310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor231456.31
William Green261194.61
Jamel White4225.50
Tim Couch11212.00
James Jackson11111.00
Andre Davis199.00
Mark Brunell461.50
Stacey Mack461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan361182
Kevin Johnson28290
Mark Campbell12260
Jamel White44250
William Green34250
Jimmy Smith23230
Steve Heiden55210
Andre Davis36200
Kyle Brady33161
Bobby Shaw12130
Fred Taylor22120
Stacey Mack1140
Pat Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.9%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.94