2002 · Week 14

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

20·23

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Jake Plummer

Sun Devil Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DET -1

Total

39.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.148EPA / play-0.092
  • 34.3%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.156EPA / dropback-0.052
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.160
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
  • 29.8%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 49.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 0.96Points / drive1.06
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.065EPA / play allowed+0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 10–9–1 since 1999

DET have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.6 points. ARI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DET @ ARI45–21DET
2024 · W3DET @ ARI20–13DET
2021 · W15ARI @ DET12–30DET
2020 · W3DET @ ARI26–23DET
2019 · W1DET @ ARI27–27Tie
2018 · W14DET @ ARI17–3DET
2017 · W1ARI @ DET23–35DET
2015 · W5ARI @ DET42–17ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–ARI
ARIQ1 15:003-3Opp touchdown7–0
DETQ1 13:1500Opp touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 13:15943Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 9:47828Punt7–7
ARIQ1 6:22631Punt7–7
DETQ1 3:11745Touchdown14–7
ARIQ1 0:0564Punt14–7
DETQ2 12:0737Punt14–7
ARIQ2 11:1430Punt14–7
DETQ2 10:24652Missed field goal14–7
ARIQ2 6:52311Turnover14–7
DETQ2 5:32412Field goal17–7
ARIQ2 3:20732Punt17–7
ARIQ2 1:34317Touchdown17–14
DETQ2 0:381-1End of half17–14
DETQ3 15:00824Field goal20–14
ARIQ3 10:48964Field goal20–17
DETQ3 5:1830Punt20–17
ARIQ3 4:13410Punt20–17
DETQ3 2:23626Punt20–17
ARIQ4 14:40723Punt20–17
DETQ4 10:443-1Punt20–17
ARIQ4 9:011340Field goal20–20
DETQ4 3:2330Punt20–20
ARIQ4 2:2137Punt20–20
DETQ4 1:05511Punt20–20
ARIQ4 0:0910End of half20–20
ARIOT834Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington20/3715210
James Stewart0/1000
Mike McMahon0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart13524.00
Rafael Cooper111.00
Eddie Drummond1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart36340
Mikhael Ricks46291
Germane Crowell15190
Bill Schroeder26160
John Owens12130
Scotty Anderson12100
Larry Foster1170
Eddie Drummond11-10

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Plummer24/4322821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcel Shipp25853.40
Jake Plummer3124.00
Kevin Kasper199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Kasper35490
Jason McAddley514480
Marcel Shipp44450
Freddie Jones47420
Nate Poole68411
Steve Bush0100
Damien Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.07