Closing spread
DET -1
Total
39.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.092
- 34.3%Success rate38.4%
- -0.156EPA / dropback-0.052
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.160
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.2%
- 29.8%Third-down rate43.6%
- 49.8%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 0.96Points / drive1.06
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.065EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 10–8–1 since 1999
DET have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. ARI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 20/37 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
| James Stewart | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rafael Cooper | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Mikhael Ricks | 4 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| John Owens | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Scotty Anderson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Larry Foster | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Eddie Drummond | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 24/43 | 228 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 25 | 85 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kasper | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Jason McAddley | 5 | 14 | 48 | 0 |
| Marcel Shipp | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Nate Poole | 6 | 8 | 41 | 1 |
| Steve Bush | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.07