Closing spread
IND -1
Total
43
Model margin
+4.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.043
- 44.3%Success rate44.9%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.095
- 7.7%Explosive rate6.9%
- 44.5%Third-down rate43.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.70Points / drive1.58
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 34–15 since 1999
IND have won 6 straight. Meetings average 46.3 points. TEN are 20-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/42 | 297 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 9 | 103 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 16 | 76 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 3 | 47 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 19/23 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 22 | 51 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 49 | 9.8 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 2 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| John Simon | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.10
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.67