Closing spread
GB -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play+0.010
- 45.1%Success rate43.5%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.072
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.081
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.6%
- 43.6%Third-down rate38.0%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.67
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:06 | 13 | 75 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:16 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIN | Q1 3:02 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| GB | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| MIN | Q2 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| GB | Q2 12:55 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| MIN | Q2 6:43 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 13–3 |
| GB | Q2 5:22 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 19–6 |
| GB | Q3 11:29 | 8 | 67 | Touchdown | 19–13 |
| MIN | Q3 7:57 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 22–13 |
| GB | Q3 6:00 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 22–13 |
| MIN | Q3 3:51 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 22–13 |
| GB | Q3 1:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 22–13 |
| MIN | Q4 14:53 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 22–13 |
| GB | Q4 13:24 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 22–20 |
| MIN | Q4 10:48 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 22–20 |
| GB | Q4 4:32 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 22–26 |
| MIN | Q4 1:06 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 22–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 15/28 | 136 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 19 | 120 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne Bates | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 3 | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 22/32 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Fisher | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Ferguson | 6 | 9 | 105 | 2 |
| Javon Walker | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 5 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jay Graham | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93