2002 · Week 14 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.056
- 41.7%Success rate41.7%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.037
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.46Points / drive1.22
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.082
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/31 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 96 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Shockey | 5 | 9 | 89 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Daryl Jones | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ramsey | 12/27 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 13/19 | 159 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 12 | 70 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Danny Wuerffel | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrius Thompson | 6 | 10 | 122 | 0 |
| Rod Gardner | 5 | 12 | 76 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.30
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.41