2002 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

27·21

Commanders

Washington

QB Danny Wuerffel

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.056
  • 41.7%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.037
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.083
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.22
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.082

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–WAS
NYGQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:4032Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:45820Punt0–0
WASQ1 9:08742Missed field goal0–0
NYGQ1 6:03943Field goal3–0
WASQ1 2:10754Turnover3–0
NYGQ2 13:571160Touchdown10–0
WASQ2 8:4757Turnover10–0
NYGQ2 5:59522Missed field goal10–0
WASQ2 3:52313Turnover10–0
NYGQ2 2:27229Touchdown17–0
WASQ2 1:53654Field goal17–3
WASQ3 15:00634Punt17–3
NYGQ3 11:2636Punt17–3
WASQ3 9:21623Field goal17–6
NYGQ3 5:5230Punt17–6
WASQ3 4:30555Touchdown17–14
NYGQ3 3:1732Punt17–14
NYGQ3 2:09221Touchdown24–14
WASQ3 1:25420Punt24–14
NYGQ3 0:04989Field goal27–14
WASQ4 10:57759Touchdown27–21
NYGQ4 8:4254Punt27–21
WASQ4 6:54855Turnover27–21
NYGQ4 3:59613Punt27–21
WASQ4 0:55729End of half27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins17/3121220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber20964.81
Ron Dayne8111.40
Daryl Jones144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Shockey59890
Amani Toomer47601
Daryl Jones37410
Tiki Barber24130
Charles Stackhouse2251
Ron Dayne1140
Dan Campbell0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Ramsey12/2720410
Danny Wuerffel13/1915901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis12705.81
Danny Wuerffel23517.50
Kenny Watson2126.00
Darnerien McCants199.00
Derrius Thompson155.00
Rock Cartwright111.00
Ladell Betts100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrius Thompson6101220
Rod Gardner512761
Ladell Betts44530
Darnerien McCants35410
Walter Rasby22240
Kenny Watson22190
Zeron Flemister13150
Chris Doering12120
Stephen Davis1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.30
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.41