Closing spread
OAK -3.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 31 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:12 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:18 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:00 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:22 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:10 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 13:23 | 9 | 52 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 9:37 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 9:14 | 9 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 5:04 | 6 | 42 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 2:24 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 1:50 | 10 | 64 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:13 | 3 | -4 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 10:45 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q3 8:49 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 7:14 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| LAC | Q3 2:12 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 20–7 |
| LV | Q4 14:49 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q4 7:25 | 8 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| LV | Q4 4:21 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 27–7 |
| LAC | Q4 1:53 | 11 | 69 | End of half | 27–7 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
6.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.64
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.