2002 · Week 14

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB A.J. Feeley

27·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Seahawks Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

37.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.035
  • 43.3%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.070
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 39.3%Third-down rate43.0%
  • 53.1%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive1.60
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.178EPA / play allowed+0.049

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 10–3 since 1999

SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W15PHI @ SEA17–20SEA
2020 · W12SEA @ PHI23–17SEA
2019 · playoffsSEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2019 · W12SEA @ PHI17–9SEA
2017 · W13PHI @ SEA10–24SEA
2016 · W11PHI @ SEA15–26SEA
2014 · W14SEA @ PHI24–14SEA
2011 · W13PHI @ SEA14–31SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:001055Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:1931Punt0–3
SEAQ1 7:56619Field goal0–6
PHIQ1 4:531144Touchdown7–6
SEAQ1 0:1310Turnover7–6
PHIQ1 0:0000Punt7–6
PHIQ2 15:00734Punt7–6
SEAQ2 11:54525Turnover7–6
PHIQ2 9:42238Touchdown14–6
SEAQ2 8:5977Turnover on downs14–6
PHIQ2 6:29619Field goal17–6
SEAQ2 4:003-4Punt17–6
PHIQ2 2:1610Turnover17–6
SEAQ2 2:083-4Punt17–6
PHIQ2 1:43737Field goal20–6
SEAQ2 0:0800End of half20–6
PHIQ3 15:0037Punt20–6
SEAQ3 13:28515Turnover20–6
PHIQ3 11:45539Touchdown27–6
SEAQ3 9:51512Punt27–6
PHIQ3 7:1537Punt27–6
SEAQ3 6:071069Touchdown27–13
PHIQ3 2:0434Punt27–13
SEAQ3 0:27776Turnover on downs27–13
PHIQ4 13:55622Punt27–13
SEAQ4 10:44516Punt27–13
PHIQ4 9:041265Missed field goal27–13
SEAQ4 2:381081Touchdown27–20
PHIQ4 0:4500End of half27–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
A.J. Feeley21/3519021
Dorsey Levens0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Duce Staley211004.81
Dorsey Levens5193.80
Brian Westbrook273.50
A.J. Feeley300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Pinkston711881
Dorsey Levens33300
Antonio Freeman26240
James Thrash58231
Chad Lewis35190
Duce Staley1260
Cecil Martin0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck24/4522323

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Alexander171237.20
Matt Hasselbeck66210.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bobby Engram56480
Koren Robinson411441
Darrell Jackson311340
Jerramy Stevens34321
Itula Mili25240
Shaun Alexander3380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.91
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.19