Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.035
- 43.3%Success rate44.0%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.070
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.3%Third-down rate43.0%
- 53.1%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.81Points / drive1.60
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.178EPA / play allowed+0.049
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 10–3 since 1999
SEA have won 8 straight. Meetings average 37.8 points. SEA are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 21/35 | 190 | 2 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duce Staley | 21 | 100 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Pinkston | 7 | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 5 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Duce Staley | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 24/45 | 223 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 17 | 123 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Engram | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Koren Robinson | 4 | 11 | 44 | 1 |
| Darrell Jackson | 3 | 11 | 34 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 3 | 4 | 32 | 1 |
| Itula Mili | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Shaun Alexander | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.91
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.19