Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.098EPA / play-0.190
- 45.2%Success rate37.2%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.193
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.185
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 52.5%Third-down rate23.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.83Points / drive0.79
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.046EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 36/55 | 276 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 50 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Paul Smith | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 12 | 16 | 123 | 2 |
| Eric Johnson | 8 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 6 | 8 | 36 | 1 |
| Paul Smith | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 11/28 | 147 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony McGee | 3 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.74