2002 · Week 14

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

31·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-0.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCowboys
  • +0.098EPA / play-0.190
  • 45.2%Success rate37.2%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback-0.193
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.185
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 52.5%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.83Points / drive0.79
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.3%
  • +0.046EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 7–7 since 1999

SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8DAL @ SF24–30SF
2023 · W5DAL @ SF10–42SF
2022 · playoffsDAL @ SF12–19SF
2021 · playoffsSF @ DAL23–17SF
2020 · W15SF @ DAL33–41DAL
2017 · W7DAL @ SF40–10DAL
2016 · W4DAL @ SF24–17DAL
2014 · W1SF @ DAL28–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–DAL
DALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:2458Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 12:15961Field goal0–3
SFQ1 6:5700Field goal0–3
DALQ1 6:51612Field goal0–6
SFQ1 4:38924Punt0–6
DALQ2 14:4610Turnover0–6
SFQ2 14:383-1Punt0–6
DALQ2 13:4233Punt0–6
SFQ2 12:08419Punt0–6
DALQ2 9:4930Punt0–6
SFQ2 9:24658Touchdown7–6
DALQ2 6:0536Punt7–6
SFQ2 3:5338Punt7–6
DALQ2 2:22628Punt7–6
SFQ2 1:32962Missed field goal7–6
SFQ3 15:00618Punt7–6
DALQ3 12:3538Turnover7–6
SFQ3 11:0833Field goal10–6
DALQ3 9:52419Punt10–6
SFQ3 7:08826Punt10–6
DALQ3 2:20213Touchdown10–13
SFQ3 1:391258Touchdown17–19
DALQ4 10:5400Touchdown17–20
SFQ4 10:3435Punt17–20
DALQ4 9:07571Touchdown17–27
SFQ4 6:56450Touchdown24–27
DALQ4 5:26636Missed field goal24–27
SFQ4 2:161363Touchdown31–27
DALQ4 0:1210End of half31–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia36/5527630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeff Garcia7507.11
Paul Smith13403.10
Garrison Hearst9353.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens12161232
Eric Johnson811600
Tai Streets68361
Paul Smith24170
Justin Swift11110
J.J. Stokes2230
Garrison Hearst24-20

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson11/2814702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith19663.52
Chad Hutchinson11818.00
Troy Hambrick6162.70
Michael Wiley11010.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony McGee34730
Michael Wiley11310
Troy Hambrick22120
Antonio Bryant14100
Joey Galloway1870
James Whalen1170
Ken-Yon Rambo1260
Mike Lucky0100
Darnay Scott0100
Emmitt Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.74