Closing spread
STL -11
Total
43
Model margin
+5.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. STL are 25-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/27 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 26 | 79 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 2 | 79 | 1 |
| Jason McAddley | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Nate Poole | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Jake Soliday | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.