Closing spread
STL -11
Total
43
Model margin
+5.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:21 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 11:54 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 9:32 | 7 | 48 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 4:40 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:42 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 0:04 | 4 | 24 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:24 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 13:24 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q2 9:27 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 6:08 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 1:03 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:39 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–24 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | -7 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:28 | 2 | 97 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| LA | Q3 11:33 | 7 | 5 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| ARI | Q3 7:54 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LA | Q3 5:08 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 21–24 |
| ARI | Q3 1:22 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:45 | 6 | 54 | Field goal | 21–27 |
| ARI | Q4 11:32 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 28–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–27 |
| ARI | Q4 7:07 | 13 | 38 | Punt | 28–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:51 | 4 | 72 | Field goal | 28–30 |
| ARI | Q4 0:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–30 |
| LA | Q4 0:03 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 28–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 17/27 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 26 | 79 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Jake Plummer | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcel Shipp | 2 | 2 | 79 | 1 |
| Jason McAddley | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Kevin Kasper | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Nate Poole | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Jake Soliday | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Freddie Jones | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.61
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.