2002 · Week 15

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Jeff Blake

23·19

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

35

Model margin

+0.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTexans
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.226
  • 41.6%Success rate33.0%
  • -0.044EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.307
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • 38.2%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
  • 1.09Points / drive0.66
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W5HOU @ BAL44–10HOU
2024 · W17BAL @ HOU31–2BAL
2023 · playoffsHOU @ BAL10–34BAL
2023 · W1HOU @ BAL9–25BAL
2020 · W2BAL @ HOU33–16BAL
2019 · W11HOU @ BAL7–41BAL
2017 · W12HOU @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W16BAL @ HOU13–25HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–HOU
HOUQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:25513Punt0–0
HOUQ1 10:31523Turnover0–0
BALQ1 7:5338Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 6:321496Touchdown3–7
BALQ2 13:33848Field goal6–7
HOUQ2 8:32727Punt6–7
BALQ2 4:43797Touchdown13–7
HOUQ2 1:50625Punt13–7
BALQ2 0:243-3End of half13–7
BALQ3 15:0033Punt13–7
HOUQ3 13:21622Punt13–7
BALQ3 10:051184Touchdown20–7
HOUQ3 3:3337Punt20–7
BALQ3 1:5435Opp touchdown20–14
HOUQ3 0:0400Opp touchdown20–14
BALQ3 0:0430Punt20–14
HOUQ4 14:29518Punt20–14
BALQ4 12:211157Field goal23–14
HOUQ4 6:481062Field goal23–17
BALQ4 2:565-10Safety23–19
HOUQ4 2:1930Turnover23–19
BALQ4 1:573-4End of half23–19

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Blake18/3022820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis20492.50
Todd Heap11515.00
Jeff Blake7101.40
Alan Ricard242.00
Chester Taylor242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Taylor57961
Chester Taylor35401
Terry Jones23350
Todd Heap36340
Jamal Lewis44120
Randy Hymes14110

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr19/3419602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Wells14483.41
James Allen8465.80
David Carr210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Billy Miller812770
JaJuan Dawson35380
Corey Bradford310280
Jabari Holloway11240
James Allen22100
Jabar Gaffney12100
Jonathan Wells1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.73