Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
35
Model margin
+0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.226
- 41.6%Success rate33.0%
- -0.044EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.307
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- 38.2%Third-down rate25.7%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.09Points / drive0.66
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.021EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 13–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.7 points. HOU are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Blake | 18/30 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 49 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Taylor | 5 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Terry Jones | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Randy Hymes | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/34 | 196 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 1 |
| James Allen | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| David Carr | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Miller | 8 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 10 | 28 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| James Allen | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.73