2002 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

7·37

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NYG -5

Total

35

Model margin

+6.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • -0.190EPA / play+0.008
  • 37.2%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.193EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.185EPA / rush-0.177
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • 23.8%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
  • 0.79Points / drive1.46
  • 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.060

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:241163Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:3665Opp touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 5:3600Opp touchdown0–14
DALQ1 5:3635Punt0–14
NYGQ1 4:06580Touchdown0–21
DALQ1 1:343-1Punt0–21
NYGQ2 14:49441Field goal0–24
DALQ2 12:37516Punt0–24
NYGQ2 9:56521Punt0–24
DALQ2 6:08412Punt0–24
NYGQ2 4:0234Punt0–24
DALQ2 2:48939Turnover on downs0–24
NYGQ2 1:2638Punt0–24
DALQ2 0:54443Turnover0–24
NYGQ2 0:171-1End of half0–24
NYGQ3 15:00550Field goal0–27
DALQ3 12:4439Punt0–27
NYGQ3 11:0236Punt0–27
DALQ3 9:2931Turnover0–27
NYGQ3 8:3942Punt0–27
DALQ3 7:2858Punt0–27
NYGQ3 5:07644Punt0–27
DALQ3 2:1336Punt0–27
NYGQ3 0:3533Field goal0–30
DALQ4 14:4636Punt0–30
NYGQ4 13:021159Touchdown0–37
DALQ4 5:58856Touchdown7–37
NYGQ4 1:5600Turnover on downs7–37
DALQ4 1:56929Turnover on downs7–37
NYGQ4 0:081-3End of half7–37

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson16/4016112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Troy Hambrick10424.20
Emmitt Smith11322.90
Chad Hutchinson3206.70
Michael Wiley2189.00
Antonio Bryant1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Wiley46310
Antonio Bryant35311
Joey Galloway18300
Reggie Swinton24260
Ken-Yon Rambo14230
Darnay Scott11120
James Whalen1340
Troy Hambrick1120
Emmitt Smith11-20

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins13/2719000
Jesse Palmer3/43000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber11817.41
Ron Dayne19804.22
Kerry Collins2-1-0.50
Jesse Palmer1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer613990
Tiki Barber33510
Jeremy Shockey38280
Dan Campbell23200
Daryl Jones13120
Charles Stackhouse11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.34