Closing spread
NYG -5
Total
35
Model margin
+6.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.190EPA / play+0.008
- 37.2%Success rate41.7%
- -0.193EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.185EPA / rush-0.177
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- 23.8%Third-down rate38.8%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 0.79Points / drive1.46
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.059EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 16/40 | 161 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wiley | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Reggie Swinton | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 13/27 | 190 | 0 | 0 |
| Jesse Palmer | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 11 | 81 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Jesse Palmer | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 6 | 13 | 99 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34