Closing spread
SF -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.098
- 43.5%Success rate45.2%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.159
- -0.081EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 38.0%Third-down rate52.5%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.67Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 13–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. SF are 8-11-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/33 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 24 | 90 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Bubba Franks | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Javon Walker | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Fisher | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/34 | 156 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 13 | 75 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 8 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.27
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84