Closing spread
IND -2
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.007
- 44.3%Success rate42.2%
- +0.112EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.064
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- 44.5%Third-down rate40.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.70Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
- -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.025
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 8–3 since 1999
CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/34 | 277 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Mungro | 14 | 75 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Edgerrin James | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 12 | 172 | 2 |
| Marcus Pollard | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Joe Dean Davenport | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 21/35 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Green | 22 | 69 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Morgan | 3 | 5 | 90 | 1 |
| Jamel White | 6 | 6 | 73 | 0 |
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| William Green | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Andre King | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Davis | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Steve Heiden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.80