2002 · Week 15

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

28·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -2

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.007
  • 44.3%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.112EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.064
  • 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • 44.5%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.8%
  • -0.065EPA / play allowed-0.025

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 8–3 since 1999

CLE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. CLE are 5-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W7CLE @ IND39–38CLE
2020 · W5IND @ CLE23–32CLE
2017 · W3CLE @ IND28–31IND
2014 · W14IND @ CLE25–24IND
2012 · W7CLE @ IND13–17IND
2011 · W2CLE @ IND27–19CLE
2008 · W13IND @ CLE10–6IND
2005 · W3CLE @ IND6–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–CLE
CLEQ1 15:00178Touchdown0–6
INDQ1 14:41521Punt0–6
CLEQ1 11:221135Punt0–6
INDQ1 5:06535Turnover0–6
CLEQ1 3:04448Touchdown0–13
INDQ1 1:10620Punt0–13
CLEQ2 13:5432Punt0–13
INDQ2 11:59619Punt0–13
CLEQ2 8:473-2Punt0–13
INDQ2 7:01310Turnover0–13
CLEQ2 6:06622Punt0–13
INDQ2 2:0432Punt0–13
CLEQ2 1:33834Field goal0–16
INDQ2 0:12113End of half0–16
INDQ3 15:00774Touchdown7–16
CLEQ3 12:1637Punt7–16
INDQ3 10:49939Punt7–16
CLEQ3 6:5436Punt7–16
INDQ3 5:19648Touchdown14–16
CLEQ3 2:51950Touchdown14–23
INDQ4 14:28753Touchdown21–23
CLEQ4 11:30410Punt21–23
INDQ4 9:46686Touchdown28–23
CLEQ4 6:46419Punt28–23
INDQ4 3:583-2Punt28–23
CLEQ4 2:521240Turnover on downs28–23
INDQ4 0:3100End of half28–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3427721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Mungro14755.42
Edgerrin James10424.20
Peyton Manning6244.00
Ricky Williams320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison9121722
Marcus Pollard25410
Joe Dean Davenport13220
Edgerrin James33200
Qadry Ismail37140
James Mungro2380
Ricky Williams0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch21/3528720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
William Green22693.11
Jamel White3196.30
Tim Couch382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quincy Morgan35901
Jamel White66730
Kevin Johnson57701
William Green34240
Mark Campbell23150
Andre King12130
Andre Davis1520
Steve Heiden0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.80