Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
45
Model margin
+5.4est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play-0.063
- 40.3%Success rate43.4%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.027
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- 33.9%Third-down rate39.3%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 0.22Points / drive1.04
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed+0.080
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 42.2 points. CIN are 7-9-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 9:08 | 3 | -11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| JAX | Q1 7:17 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 5:49 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q1 1:54 | 6 | 62 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CIN | Q2 13:45 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| JAX | Q2 9:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–6 |
| CIN | Q2 7:18 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 14–12 |
| JAX | Q2 0:58 | 5 | 23 | End of half | 14–12 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 26 | Field goal | 14–15 |
| JAX | Q3 9:20 | 9 | 65 | Touchdown | 22–15 |
| CIN | Q3 4:48 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 22–15 |
| JAX | Q3 3:18 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 22–15 |
| CIN | Q3 1:39 | 6 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 22–15 |
| JAX | Q4 14:52 | 9 | 67 | Touchdown | 29–15 |
| CIN | Q4 9:52 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 29–15 |
| JAX | Q4 9:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 29–15 |
| CIN | Q4 7:13 | 11 | 49 | Turnover on downs | 29–15 |
| JAX | Q4 3:57 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 29–15 |
| CIN | Q4 2:09 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 29–15 |
| JAX | Q4 1:39 | 3 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 29–15 |
| CIN | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–15 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 19/28 | 223 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 18 | 71 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Mark Brunell | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 7 | 10 | 98 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 4 | 5 | 31 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 1 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Chris Luzar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 22/42 | 258 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson | 4 | 13 | 91 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 6 | 10 | 69 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Matt Schobel | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Tony Stewart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
6.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.40