Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.161EPA / play+0.065
- 47.5%Success rate49.4%
- +0.224EPA / dropback+0.067
- +0.083EPA / rush+0.062
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- 41.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 2.29Points / drive1.76
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.098EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 18/42 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priest Holmes | 18 | 161 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Hall | 5 | 6 | 143 | 2 |
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Snoop Minnis | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Marc Boerigter | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/26 | 297 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 3 |
| Mike Anderson | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 3 | 4 | 83 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 3 | 3 | 75 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 2 | 2 | 68 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
48.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.02