Closing spread
NO -7
Total
51
Model margin
+1.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.006
- 45.1%Success rate39.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.038
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- 43.6%Third-down rate40.9%
- 58.3%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.93Points / drive1.94
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.082EPA / play allowed-0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 11:50 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NO | Q1 8:21 | 3 | -14 | Punt | 7–3 |
| MIN | Q1 6:43 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| NO | Q1 1:01 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| MIN | Q1 0:48 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| NO | Q2 11:59 | 11 | 44 | Field goal | 17–13 |
| MIN | Q2 5:25 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 17–13 |
| NO | Q2 2:21 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| MIN | Q2 0:53 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| NO | Q2 0:12 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 24–20 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 24–20 |
| NO | Q3 13:05 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 24–20 |
| MIN | Q3 11:23 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 24–20 |
| NO | Q3 9:01 | 14 | 89 | Field goal | 24–23 |
| MIN | Q3 0:55 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 24–23 |
| NO | Q4 13:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 24–23 |
| MIN | Q4 12:18 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 24–23 |
| NO | Q4 9:56 | 11 | 56 | Touchdown | 24–31 |
| MIN | Q4 5:21 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 32–31 |
| NO | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 32–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 26/36 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 7 | 73 | 10.4 | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 1 | 25 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 11 | 13 | 113 | 2 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 4 | 61 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Kelly Campbell | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 21/33 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| James Fenderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.17