Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.000EPA / play+0.043
- 43.6%Success rate44.9%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.095
- 6.3%Explosive rate6.9%
- 43.1%Third-down rate43.7%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.69Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 49 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:07 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 7:26 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 5:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:34 | 13 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 12:16 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q2 8:54 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q2 7:20 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:32 | 6 | 14 | Turnover on downs | 0–14 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 39 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| TEN | Q3 13:08 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–20 |
| NE | Q3 10:06 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 9:58 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–21 |
| NE | Q3 9:58 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 8:43 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–21 |
| NE | Q3 5:08 | 4 | 22 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TEN | Q3 3:46 | 14 | 74 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| NE | Q4 9:22 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–24 |
| TEN | Q4 8:51 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–24 |
| NE | Q4 5:14 | 5 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| TEN | Q4 3:17 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| NE | Q4 1:11 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 7–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 14/29 | 134 | 0 | 1 |
| Rohan Davey | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 14 | 73 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Givens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 11/24 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 31 | 101 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 6 | 49 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.25