2019 · WC

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

20·13

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPatriots
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.010
  • 45.7%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.078
  • 11.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +3.45CPOE-2.06
  • 39.4%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.85
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NE
NEQ1 15:00757Field goal0–3
TENQ1 12:371380Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 5:391075Touchdown7–10
TENQ2 14:5737Punt7–10
NEQ2 13:22623Punt7–10
TENQ2 9:1337Punt7–10
NEQ2 8:00944Field goal7–13
TENQ2 2:16775Touchdown14–13
NEQ2 0:35623Turnover on downs14–13
TENQ3 15:00616Punt14–13
NEQ3 11:23720Punt14–13
TENQ3 8:025-4Punt14–13
NEQ3 5:31632Punt14–13
TENQ3 2:30512Turnover14–13
NEQ4 14:5257Punt14–13
TENQ4 12:451046Punt14–13
NEQ4 4:44426Punt14–13
TENQ4 3:10833Punt20–13
NEQ4 0:1510Opp touchdown20–13
NEQ4 0:0900Turnover20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill8/157211
Marcus Mariota1/1400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry341825.41
Ryan Tannehill4112.80
Dion Lewis284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Firkser23231
Derrick Henry11220
Jonnu Smith1290
Dion Lewis1180
Tajae Sharpe1360
MyCole Pruitt2240
A.J. Brown1140
Corey Davis0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady20/3720901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel14614.40
James White11414.00
Julian Edelman2126.01
N'Keal Harry177.00
Rex Burkhead341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White55620
Benjamin Watson34380
Rex Burkhead33320
Julian Edelman35300
N'Keal Harry27210
Mohamed Sanu15110
Sony Michel2290
Phillip Dorsett1460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77