Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.010
- 45.7%Success rate42.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.078
- 11.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.45CPOE-2.06
- 39.4%Third-down rate39.1%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.99Points / drive1.85
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 8/15 | 72 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 34 | 182 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/37 | 209 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77