2018 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

10·34

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -6

Total

47

Model margin

-0.8est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTitans
  • +0.090EPA / play-0.029
  • 47.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.023
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.094
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +1.03CPOE+1.50
  • 41.8%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.83
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00740Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 11:29641Field goal3–7
TENQ1 9:191077Touchdown3–14
NEQ1 5:583-9Punt3–14
TENQ1 4:11434Field goal3–17
NEQ1 2:351075Touchdown10–17
TENQ2 12:4938Punt10–17
NEQ2 11:25531Missed field goal10–17
TENQ2 9:23513Punt10–17
NEQ2 6:2734Punt10–17
TENQ2 5:26842Touchdown10–24
NEQ2 1:09725End of half10–24
NEQ3 15:003-4Punt10–24
TENQ3 13:1435Punt10–24
NEQ3 11:49843Punt10–24
TENQ3 9:061088Field goal10–27
NEQ3 4:15518Punt10–27
TENQ3 2:00614Punt10–27
NEQ4 13:32738Turnover on downs10–27
TENQ4 10:48658Touchdown10–34
NEQ4 7:13310Punt10–34
TENQ4 4:5136Punt10–34
NEQ4 2:18512End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady21/4125400
Brian Hoyer1/1700
Julian Edelman1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel11312.80
Cordarrelle Patterson4112.80
Brian Hoyer122.00
Tom Brady100.00
James White1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9121040
Josh Gordon412810
James White58310
Phillip Dorsett22180
Jacob Hollister12170
Dwayne Allen11100
Tom Brady1160
Chris Hogan0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota16/2422820
Darius Jennings1/12100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry11585.32
Dion Lewis20572.90
Marcus Mariota22110.50
David Fluellen3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis7101251
Jonnu Smith33451
Cameron Batson23360
Marcus Mariota11210
Dion Lewis22110
Anthony Firkser11110
Darius Jennings1100
Tajae Sharpe0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.9%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.81