Closing spread
NE -6
Total
47
Model margin
-0.8est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play-0.029
- 47.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.094
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.3%
- +1.03CPOE+1.50
- 41.8%Third-down rate40.0%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.32Points / drive1.83
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 21/41 | 254 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 104 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 4 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| James White | 5 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 16/24 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Dion Lewis | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| David Fluellen | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.81