Closing spread
NE -14.5
Total
48
Model margin
+6.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.089
- 41.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.050EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.200EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
- +0.30CPOE-0.32
- 32.1%Third-down rate41.0%
- 67.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.32Points / drive2.25
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 20/28 | 242 | 2 | 2 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3/6 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Andrews | 14 | 45 | 3.2 | 0 |
| David Cobb | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 6 | 9 | 113 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 5 | 64 | 2 |
| Antonio Andrews | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 267 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James White | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| James White | 7 | 8 | 71 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 11 | 54 | 1 |
| Keshawn Martin | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Michael Williams | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.55