2015 · Week 15

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

16·33

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NE -14.5

Total

48

Model margin

+6.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.103EPA / play+0.089
  • 41.1%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.200EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +0.30CPOE-0.32
  • 32.1%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 67.5%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.25
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NE
TENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:371289Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 7:10728Punt0–7
NEQ1 3:1167Punt0–7
TENQ1 0:453-13Opp touchdown0–14
TENQ2 13:4839Punt0–14
TENQ2 11:243-5Field goal3–14
NEQ2 9:44230Touchdown3–21
TENQ2 9:23740Turnover on downs3–21
NEQ2 5:00742Field goal3–24
TENQ2 1:4431Punt3–24
NEQ2 1:13525Missed field goal3–24
TENQ2 0:201-10End of half3–24
NEQ3 15:0036Punt3–24
TENQ3 14:03759Touchdown10–24
NEQ3 10:051046Field goal10–27
TENQ3 5:09913Punt10–27
NEQ3 0:58632Punt10–27
TENQ4 12:28640Turnover10–27
NEQ4 9:25410Punt16–27
TENQ4 7:04157Touchdown16–27
NEQ4 6:52857Field goal16–30
TENQ4 3:30632Turnover16–30
NEQ4 2:1432Field goal16–33
TENQ4 1:06323End of half16–33

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger20/2824222
Marcus Mariota3/63200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Andrews14453.20
David Cobb492.30
Zach Mettenberger252.50
Jalston Fowler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dorial Green-Beckham691130
Delanie Walker25642
Antonio Andrews56250
Bishop Sankey33230
Anthony Fasano34210
Harry Douglas24150
Jalston Fowler1180
Craig Stevens1150

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3526720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Bolden10363.60
James White166.00
Brandon LaFell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell45880
James White78711
Rob Gronkowski511541
Keshawn Martin34260
Brandon Bolden23180
Michael Williams1170
Danny Amendola1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.55