Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
48
Model margin
-1.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play-0.093
- 50.2%Success rate38.0%
- +0.282EPA / dropback-0.054
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.166
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.48CPOE-2.87
- 48.4%Third-down rate38.2%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 2.71Points / drive1.29
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/31 | 236 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 21 | 125 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 6 | 60 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 7 | 59 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 23/32 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6/11 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 11 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cook | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 8 | 53 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 5 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Jamie Harper | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.64