2012 · Week 1

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

48

Model margin

-1.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTitans
  • +0.176EPA / play-0.093
  • 50.2%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.282EPA / dropback-0.054
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.166
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.48CPOE-2.87
  • 48.4%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
  • 2.71Points / drive1.29
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TEN
TENQ1 15:001261Field goal0–3
NEQ1 8:43628Punt0–3
TENQ1 6:2037Punt0–3
NEQ1 4:05567Touchdown7–3
TENQ1 1:59634Turnover7–3
NEQ2 14:14425Punt7–3
TENQ2 12:063-4Opp touchdown14–3
TENQ2 11:07620Punt14–3
NEQ2 7:171267Touchdown21–3
TENQ2 2:00520Punt21–3
NEQ2 0:3400End of half21–3
NEQ3 15:00729Punt21–3
TENQ3 11:47480Touchdown21–10
NEQ3 10:171040Punt21–10
TENQ3 5:364-3Punt21–10
NEQ3 3:29648Touchdown28–10
TENQ3 1:041762Field goal28–13
NEQ4 9:171176Field goal31–13
TENQ4 4:1544Turnover on downs31–13
NEQ4 3:43511Field goal34–13
TENQ4 0:3113End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3123620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley211256.01
Danny Woodhead6203.30
Brandon Bolden5112.20
Aaron Hernandez155.00
Tom Brady210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd58690
Rob Gronkowski66601
Aaron Hernandez67591
Stevan Ridley23270
Wes Welker35140
Julian Edelman1270

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker23/3222911
Matt Hasselbeck6/114300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jake Locker2115.50
Chris Johnson1140.40
Jamie Harper133.00
Darius Reynaud221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jared Cook46640
Nate Washington28531
Chris Johnson67470
Kendall Wright56370
Damian Williams56330
Darius Reynaud34170
Lavelle Hawkins2480
Jamie Harper1180
Craig Stevens1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.7%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.64