Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Titans
- OutA.J. BrownWRChest· DNP
- OutDavid LongLBHamstring· DNP
- OutJeremy McNicholsRBConcussion· DNP
- OutNate DavisGConcussion· DNP
- OutRashaan EvansLBAnkle· DNP
- OutTeair TartDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableElijah MoldenCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableGeoff SwaimTEConcussion· Full
- QuestionableGreg MabinCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJayon BrownLBQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableOlasunkanmi AdeniyiLBHamstring· Limited
- DNPDenico AutryDEIllness
- DNPLogan WoodsideQBIllness
- LimitedD'Onta ForemanRBTriceps
- LimitedHarold LandryLBHamstring
- LimitedJanoris JenkinsCBChest
Patriots
- QuestionableChristian BarmoreDTKnee· Limited
- QuestionableCody DavisSIllness
- QuestionableDamien HarrisRBNeck· Limited
- QuestionableDont'a HightowerLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableHunter HenryTENeck· Limited
- QuestionableJa'Whaun BentleyLBRibs· Limited
- QuestionableJake BaileyPright Knee· Limited
- QuestionableJonnu SmithTEShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableNick FolkKleft Knee· Limited
- QuestionableRhamondre StevensonRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTrenton BrownTCalf· Limited
- LimitedKyle Van NoyLBGroin
- LimitedShaquille MasonGAbdomen
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.070
- 44.7%Success rate48.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.1%
- +2.33CPOE+2.93
- 43.8%Third-down rate45.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.15Points / drive2.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:23 | 10 | 32 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TEN | Q1 7:37 | 15 | 69 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| NE | Q2 14:28 | 7 | 75 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q2 9:50 | 7 | 31 | Missed field goal | 6–10 |
| NE | Q2 6:01 | 6 | 57 | Field goal | 6–13 |
| TEN | Q2 3:04 | 4 | 40 | Turnover | 6–13 |
| NE | Q2 1:51 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 6–16 |
| TEN | Q2 0:58 | 3 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| NE | Q2 0:37 | 4 | 38 | Missed field goal | 13–16 |
| TEN | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–16 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| TEN | Q3 11:13 | 2 | 36 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| NE | Q3 10:24 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 13–19 |
| TEN | Q3 7:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–19 |
| NE | Q3 6:44 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 13–26 |
| TEN | Q3 5:01 | 14 | 68 | Turnover | 13–26 |
| NE | Q4 11:59 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 13–29 |
| TEN | Q4 6:09 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 13–29 |
| NE | Q4 5:26 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 13–36 |
| TEN | Q4 4:38 | 7 | 33 | Turnover | 13–36 |
| NE | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–36 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/21 | 93 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrell Hilliard | 12 | 131 | 10.9 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Cody Hollister | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/32 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 61 | 2 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.11