Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.070
- 44.7%Success rate48.6%
- +0.092EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.1%
- +2.33CPOE+2.93
- 43.8%Third-down rate45.5%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.15Points / drive2.41
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 11/21 | 93 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontrell Hilliard | 12 | 131 | 10.9 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Cody Hollister | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dez Fitzpatrick | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 23/32 | 310 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 5 | 6 | 61 | 2 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.11