2024 · Week 9

Final / OT

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

17·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Mason Rudolph

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTitans
  • -0.081EPA / play-0.104
  • 42.5%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.020EPA / dropback-0.056
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.175
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.54CPOE+0.11
  • 35.0%Third-down rate38.0%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.35
  • 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 10:18532Missed field goal0–7
TENQ1 7:03416Punt0–7
NEQ1 4:51312Punt0–7
TENQ1 3:18420Punt0–7
NEQ1 1:0832Turnover0–7
TENQ2 14:51629Turnover0–7
NEQ2 12:451056Field goal3–7
TENQ2 7:13936Punt3–7
NEQ2 1:48422Punt3–7
TENQ2 0:41715Turnover on downs3–7
NEQ3 15:001579Touchdown10–7
TENQ3 7:391477Field goal10–10
NEQ3 0:343-1Punt10–10
TENQ4 13:36531Punt10–10
NEQ4 10:09619Turnover10–10
TENQ4 6:53526Touchdown10–17
NEQ4 4:27613Punt10–17
TENQ4 2:4733Punt10–17
NEQ4 1:451050Touchdown17–17
TENOT1272Field goal17–20
NEOT311Turnover17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye29/4120612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye89511.90
Rhamondre Stevenson10161.61
JaMycal Hasty100.00
Antonio Gibson1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry78560
Kendrick Bourne46410
Rhamondre Stevenson55381
DeMario Douglas79350
Kayshon Boutte26180
Antonio Gibson11120
Austin Hooper1180
Jaheim Bell1110
Ja'Lynn Polk0100
JaMycal Hasty11-30

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph20/3324021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard281284.60
Julius Chestnut5224.40
Mason Rudolph4194.80
Tyler Boyd133.00
Jha'Quan Jackson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley58730
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine56501
Chig Okonkwo34380
Nick Vannett22331
Tony Pollard33260
Josh Whyle12120
Jha'Quan Jackson1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.07