Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.081EPA / play-0.104
- 42.5%Success rate40.4%
- -0.020EPA / dropback-0.056
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.175
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.54CPOE+0.11
- 35.0%Third-down rate38.0%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.51Points / drive1.35
- 2.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 29/41 | 206 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 8 | 95 | 11.9 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 7 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaheim Bell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 20/33 | 240 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 28 | 128 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jha'Quan Jackson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jha'Quan Jackson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.07