2025 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

31·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

NE -6.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

-6.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapTitans
  • +0.154EPA / play-0.148
  • 48.2%Success rate37.9%
  • +0.308EPA / dropback-0.165
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.117
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +10.94CPOE-3.50
  • 43.3%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.47Points / drive1.36
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2017 · playoffsTEN @ NE14–35NE
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–TEN
TENQ1 15:00534Field goal0–3
NEQ1 12:20947Field goal3–3
TENQ1 6:46359Touchdown3–10
NEQ1 5:04522Punt3–10
TENQ1 2:07939Punt3–10
NEQ2 12:161193Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 5:34737Field goal10–13
NEQ2 1:48360Touchdown17–13
TENQ2 0:4947Turnover on downs17–13
NEQ3 15:001288Touchdown24–13
TENQ3 7:311-19Opp touchdown31–13
TENQ3 7:203-1Punt31–13
NEQ3 5:213-4Punt31–13
TENQ3 3:05417Punt31–13
NEQ3 0:571256Punt31–13
TENQ4 8:46939Turnover on downs31–13
NEQ4 5:47311Punt31–13
TENQ4 5:20843Turnover31–13
NEQ4 3:37416End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye21/2322220
Joshua Dobbs1/11200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson18884.91
Drake Maye8627.80
Terrell Jennings5183.60
TreVeyon Henderson252.50
Mack Hollins144.00
Joshua Dobbs2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs77690
Kayshon Boutte22551
Mack Hollins22490
Hunter Henry45330
DeMario Douglas33170
Austin Hooper22111
Rhamondre Stevenson2200
Kyle Williams0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward25/3425511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyjae Spears5224.40
Tony Pollard6183.00
Chimere Dike1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chimere Dike44701
Tony Pollard66430
Van Jefferson44410
Gunnar Helm45360
Elic Ayomanor25290
Tyler Lockett22180
Tyjae Spears34180
Chig Okonkwo0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.2%3.3%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

33.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-6.07