Closing spread
NE -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-6.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.154EPA / play-0.148
- 48.2%Success rate37.9%
- +0.308EPA / dropback-0.165
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.117
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +10.94CPOE-3.50
- 43.3%Third-down rate32.0%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 2.47Points / drive1.36
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. TEN are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 21/23 | 222 | 2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 88 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Terrell Jennings | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 2 | 2 | 55 | 1 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 2 | 49 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 25/34 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chimere Dike | 4 | 4 | 70 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
33.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.07