Closing spread
NE -13.5
Total
48
Model margin
+5.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play+0.137
- 42.6%Success rate49.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.254
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.042
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.43CPOE+3.49
- 36.0%Third-down rate40.8%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.73Points / drive2.52
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 23/38 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 6 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 5 | 8 | 63 | 2 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 3 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 35/53 | 337 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 1 |
| James White | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 11 | 13 | 112 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 9 | 10 | 79 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Jacob Hollister | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.57