2017 · DIV

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

14·35

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 24°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

NE -13.5

Total

48

Model margin

+5.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapPatriots
  • -0.069EPA / play+0.137
  • 42.6%Success rate49.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.254
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.042
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.43CPOE+3.49
  • 36.0%Third-down rate40.8%
  • 61.4%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.52
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. NE are 8-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NE @ TEN31–13NE
2024 · W9NE @ TEN17–20TEN
2021 · W12TEN @ NE13–36NE
2019 · playoffsTEN @ NE20–13TEN
2018 · W10NE @ TEN10–34TEN
2015 · W15TEN @ NE16–33NE
2012 · W1NE @ TEN34–13NE
2009 · W6TEN @ NE0–59NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–NE
NEQ1 15:00627Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:37513Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:12620Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:311195Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 1:14773Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 13:1846Punt7–7
NEQ2 11:16648Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 9:20430Punt7–14
NEQ2 7:101774Touchdown7–21
TENQ2 1:52824Turnover on downs7–21
NEQ2 0:17314Missed field goal7–21
TENQ3 15:0048Punt7–21
NEQ3 12:30516Punt7–21
TENQ3 10:363-2Punt7–21
NEQ3 8:22956Touchdown7–28
TENQ3 4:023-1Punt7–28
NEQ3 2:201590Touchdown7–35
TENQ4 10:22724Punt7–35
NEQ4 8:06421Punt7–35
TENQ4 5:481680Touchdown14–35
NEQ4 1:5500End of half14–35

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota23/3826420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota4379.30
Derrick Henry12282.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker67850
Corey Davis58632
Delanie Walker47590
Rishard Matthews38270
Derrick Henry34210
Taywan Taylor1350
Jonnu Smith1140

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady35/5333730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis15624.10
Brandon Bolden4276.81
James White4112.81
Tom Brady122.00
Brian Hoyer3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola11131120
Rob Gronkowski69811
Dion Lewis910790
Brandin Cooks39320
James White47291
Chris Hogan1441
Jacob Hollister1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.57